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ELŐADÁS
2024. április 12.
Az éghajlati és természeti válságkezelésre alkalmas szakpolitikák
Ha nem teljesülnek a párizsi klímacélok, olyan gazdasági problémák támadhatnak, amelyek kihatnak a központi bankok munkájára, mondta Frank Elderson, igazgatósági tag. A hosszú távú szakpolitikai hibák elkerülése érdekében a gazdasági döntéshozóknak kezelniük kell a felmerülő strukturális változásokat, és csökkenteniük kell a bizonytalanságot.
Előadás szövege
MONETÁRIS POLITIKA
Az EKB legutóbbi sajtóértekezlete
Christine Lagarde elnök és Luis de Guindos alelnök ismertette a Kormányzótanács legutóbbi monetáris politikai döntéseit, és sajtóértekezleten válaszolt újságírók kérdéseire.
További információk
ESEMÉNY
2024. április 8.
Médiaszeminárium – jelentkezési határidő: május 3.
Ha a médiában dolgozik, és részt kíván venni június 6–7-i szemináriumunkon, kérjük, hogy küldjön e-mailt a media@ecb.europa.eu címre. A szeminárium remek alkalmat kínál a monetáris politika és bankfelügyelet háttérkérdéseinek megvitatására, valamint az EKB döntéshozóival való találkozásra.
Bővebben- 12 April 2024
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 12 April 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 12 April 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 12 April 2024
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 11 April 2024
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 11 April 2024
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 11 April 2024
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 9 April 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 9 April 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 15 April 2024
- Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University College Dublin Economics Society
- 12 April 2024
- Frank Elderson: “Know thyself” – avoiding policy mistakes in light of the prevailing climate scienceKeynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Delphi Economic Forum IX
- 11 April 2024
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 11 April 2024EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 11 April 2024
- 11 April 2024
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 27 March 2024
- Remarks by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at an event on climate-related financial risks hosted by the Banco Central do Brasil
- 27 March 2024
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by the House of the Euro and the Centre for European Reform
- 19 March 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Michalis Psilos
- 7 February 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 2 February 2024
- 3 February 2024
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Jonathan Witteman on 29 January 2024
- 31 January 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kolja Rudzio
- 22 January 2024
- Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, French and German members of parliament and other personalities, published on n-tv.de
- 3 April 2024
- Governments and central banks can shield the economy from shocks with their decisions. The ECB Blog looks at a recent high-level conference that analysed the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy and questioned some long-held beliefs.Details
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 22 March 2024
- The Eurosystem is shrinking its balance sheet, which makes more government bonds available for purchase. The ECB Blog looks at how markets are adjusting to this new situation with regard to bond price volatility, liquidity and the impact on repo markets.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 14 March 2024
- Central banks have been collecting art for a long time. While the works were previously only accessible at their physical locations, more and more central banks now make their collections available online. The ECB Blog showcases four collections you can enjoy from wherever you are.
- 11 March 2024
- In 2021-22 inflation surged due to the direct and indirect effects of the energy shock, together with a set of pandemic-related factors and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this post on The ECB Blog, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane looks at the monetary policy actions taken by the ECB in response to these extraordinary inflation shocks.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- 22 February 2024
- Bitcoin has failed on the promise to be a global decentralised digital currency. Instead it is used for illicit transactions. The latest approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not suitable as means of payment or as an investment.Details
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
- 16 April 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2926Details
- Abstract
- We shed light on the demand for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a means of payment, based on survey payment data. We provide a quantitative framework to assess transactional demand for CBDC at the point of sale, accommodating a wide range of design choices. We develop a structural model of payment means adoption and usage and estimate CBDC demand based on individuals’ preferences for payment method attributes. We disentangle the friction potentially associated to CBDC adoption, assessing two of its potential drivers: information frictions and gradual diffusion of digital payment methods. We find that modelling adoption is key to understanding CBDC demand. Finally, we show that optimal CBDC design, information campaigns, and network effects can substantially boost demand.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 15 April 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 15 April 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 345Details
- Abstract
- This paper discusses the impact that a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could have on the implementation of monetary policy. Monetary policy implementation could be affected if the introduction of the retail CBDC changes the volume of commercial bank deposits held by customers, which would, in turn, affect central bank reserves. While it is often assumed that customer deposits would decrease if a CBDC was introduced, we provide arguments why this is by no means clear cut and deposits could even increase. If bank deposits do decrease, banks would need to draw on, and therefore reduce, their central bank reserve holdings. Moreover, uncertainty as to the timing and extent of any conversions of deposits into CBDC might prompt banks to scale up their demand for central bank reserves in order to hold larger precautionary buffers. Consequently, central banks might need to adjust their reserve supply and other features of their monetary policy implementation, depending, for example, on whether they use a floor or a corridor system for monetary policy implementation. In the specific case of the digital euro, the features already envisaged for its design would make it possible to minimise the risk of negative consequences for monetary policy implementation.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 12 April 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2925Details
- Abstract
- This paper extends Boone (2008) by introducing a competition measure at the individual firm level rather than for an entire market segment. It is based on the elasticity between profits and efficiency and called marginal relative profitability (MRP). Its intuition is that when a small change in efficiency derived from marginal costs can cause a large change in profits, a firm exercises pressure on its peers and gains profits. The MRP is embedded in the theoretical framework of Boone and measures competition vis-à-vis other market participants. We apply this extended Boone indicator to individual bank-level competition in the loan market in the four largest euro area countries and Austria. The MRP distribution is skewed to the left and many banks have a MRP below one, indicating that those banks have little incentive to enhance their efficiency to increase their profits. The MRP approach is shown to be a powerful tool to test the efficient-structure, structure-conduct performance, and ‘quiet life’ hypotheses and to detect comparatively weak non-competitive banks. Our new measure of firm-level competition enriches and complements other competition measures and provides a promising starting point for future market power analyses.
- JEL Code
- D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
L16 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change, Industrial Price Indices
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 12 April 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2924Details
- Abstract
- Investment funds hold a disproportionately larger fraction of domestic relative to foreign stocks. Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias. The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers. We use a “look-through approach” to account for this misclassification. First, we find substantially smaller home bias estimates compared to those in the literature. Second, the explanatory power of plausible home bias determinants is lower than previously documented. Third, familiarity only plays a meaningful role when investors are households, highlighting the role of investor sophistication.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 12 April 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 12 April 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 12 April 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 12 April 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 12 April 2024
- ANNEX
- 12 April 2024
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 12 April 2024
- ANNEX
Related- 12 April 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 12 April 2024
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 12 April 2024
- ANNEX
- 12 April 2024
- ANNEX
- 12 April 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 57 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 11 and 19 March 2024, aggregate activity was subdued at the start of the year, but there were some signs of a pick-up in demand and expectations of a gradual, albeit modest, recovery in the course of the year. Growth in selling prices picked up slightly in the first months of the year, owing mainly to a slight rebound in the prices of some intermediate goods and services. However, growth in prices closer to the final consumer continued to ease gradually, as did wage expectations.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 9 April 2024
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 9 April 2024
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related- 9 April 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 8 April 2024
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 8 April 2024
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
Related - 3 April 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2923Details
- Abstract
- How a historic drop in bank deposits shapes banks’ loan supply? We exploit the effects of a large, and unexpected, increase in monetary policy rates to estimate the deposit channel of monetary policy using an extensive credit register that includes all bank-firm lending relationships in all euro area countries. We find that banks experiencing large deposit outflows reduce credit, but not the interest rate they charge, to the same borrower relative to other lenders. This credit restriction is stronger for fixed rate and longer maturity loans, but not for riskier borrowers. The effect is mostly driven by banks coming into the hiking period with a larger unhedged duration gap that renders borrowers of those banks more vulnerable to credit restrictions due to the deposit outflows as interest rates surge. We resort to the deposit beta as an instrument variable and a matched estimator that bear out the thrust of our results.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 3 April 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 3 April 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 3 April 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 27 March 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2922Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans. We also find that demographic, economic factors, perceptions and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and the credit grant.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
G51 : Financial Economics
- 25 March 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPSRelated
- 25 March 2024
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE
- 25 March 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 22 March 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2921Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the impact of voluntary climate commitments by banks on their lending activity. We use administrative data on the universe of bank lending from 19 European countries. There is strong selection into commitments, with increased participation by the largest banks and banks with the most pre-existing exposure to high-polluting industries. Setting a commitment leads to a boost in a lender’s ESG rating. Lenders reduce credit in sectors they have targeted as high priority for decarbonization. However, climate-aligned banks do not change their lending or loan pricing differentially compared to banks without climate commitments, suggesting they are not actively divesting. We can reject that climate-aligned lenders divest from firms in targeted sectors by more than 2.6%. Firm borrowers are no more likely to set climate targets after their lender sets a climate target, which casts doubt on active engagement by lenders. These results call into question the efficacy of voluntary commitments.
- JEL Code
- Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Kamatlábak
| Aktív oldali rendelkezésre állás | 4,75 % |
| Irányadó refinanszírozási műveletek (rögzített kamatláb) | 4,50 % |
| Betéti rendelkezésre állás | 4,00 % |
Inflációs ráta
Inflációs vezérlőpultÁrfolyam
| USD | US dollar | 1.0656 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 164.05 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.85405 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9725 |
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