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Hanno Kase
- 4 August 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3086Details
- Abstract
- We introduce an estimated medium scale Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model for forecasting and policy analysis in the Euro Area and discuss the applications of this type of models in central banks, focusing on two main exercises. First, we examine an alternative scenario for monetary policy during the early 2020s inflationary episode, showing that earlier hikes in interest rates would have affected more strongly households at the lower end of the wealth distribution, whose consumption our model suggests was already depressed relative to the rest of the population. To provide intuition for this result, we introduce a new decomposition of the effects of monetary policy on consumption across the wealth distribution. Second, we show that introducing heterogeneous households does not come at the cost of forecasting accuracy by comparing the performance of our model to its exact representative-agent counterpart and demonstrating nearly identical results in predicting key aggregate variables.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E12 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Keynes, Keynesian, Post-Keynesian
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372Details
- Abstract
- This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 371
- 15 March 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 344Details
- Abstract
- This paper takes stock of the ECB’s macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they can in principle be used for economic forecasting, scenario and risk analyses. We also discuss the modelling agenda which is currently under development, focusing notably on heterogeneity, machine learning, expectation formation and climate change. The paper makes it clear that the large macroeconometric models typically developed in central banks remain stylised descriptions of our modern economies and can fail to predict or assess the nature of economic events (especially when big crises arise). But even in highly uncertain economic conditions, they can still provide a meaningful contribution to policy preparation. We conclude the paper with a roadmap which will allow the ECB and the Eurosystem to exploit technological advances and cooperation across institutions as a useful means of ensuring that the modelling framework is not only resilient to disruptive events but also innovative.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy