Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2023

28 July 2023

• Limited off-setting revisions to HICP inflation expectations for 2023-25; longer-term expectations unchanged
• Real GDP growth expectations unchanged for 2023, but revised down slightly for subsequent years
• Unemployment rate expectations revised down slightly for 2023 and 2024, but unchanged for longer term

In the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2023, respondents’ expectations for headline HICP inflation in 2023 were broadly unchanged compared to the previous survey round. However, these unchanged aggregate expectations concealed downward revisions to HICP energy and food and upward revisions to expectations for HICP inflation excluding energy and food. The latter reportedly reflecting recent data outturns showing more persistence than expected as well as higher forecast wage growth. Headline inflation was expected to decline from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. Longer-term HICP inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.1%.

Expectations for real GDP growth were unchanged for 2023 but down slightly for 2024 and 2025. The profile of respondents’ short-term GDP outlook (from the second quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024) implies a modest, but constant, increase in economic activity over this period. Longer-term GDP growth expectations were revised down slightly to 1.3%.

Unemployment expectations were around 6.6-6.7% for 2023 to 2025 but declined to 6.5% for 2028.

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Notes

• The SPF for the third quarter of 2023 was conducted between 30 June and 5 July 2023, with 54 responses received. The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The survey participants are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within Europe. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area will be published on 14 September 2023.
• Since 2015, the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-14: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
• A report on this survey round and more detailed data are available via the SPF webpage and the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse.