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Publications on Monetary policy

15 February 2024
SPEECH
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar on “Monetary Policy and Banks' Business Strategies”, organised by the Florence School of Banking and Finance as part of the Bank Board Academy
15 February 2024
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Annexes
14 February 2024
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 8th Annual Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks, organised by Hrvatska narodna banka, Banco de España, OECD, IEMed, and UfM
13 February 2024
THE ECB BLOG
When reading data on reinvestments under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) one needs to understand how we implement purchases. Director General Market Operations Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel explain how to avoid pitfalls.
Annexes
13 February 2024
THE ECB BLOG
12 February 2024
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint Banco de España, Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics and European Central Bank conference “External statistics after the pandemic: addressing novel analytical challenges” in Madrid
8 February 2024
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box provides updated estimates of the euro area discretionary fiscal measures related to the support provided by euro area governments in response to the energy crisis and high inflation. It also discusses how these measures relate to climate change in the context of the December 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
Financial markets and analysts significantly underestimated the pace and size of the recent increases in the key ECB interest rates. This box measures the size and dynamics of policy expectation errors. Based on information from the ECB’s Survey of Monetary Analysts, it suggests that these expectation errors were driven mainly by revisions to macroeconomic expectations, indicating that analysts perceived a broadly consistent policy reaction to macroeconomic developments.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
Historically, the financial vulnerability indicator based on the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) evolves broadly in line with bankruptcies and other insolvency measures for firms in the euro area. The current rise in vulnerabilities identified in the SAFE is driven mostly by firms in industry, construction and trade and by large firms rather than by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Increasing interest expenses are important in explaining the likelihood of firms becoming vulnerable. Balance sheet data on firms in the SAFE confirm that corporate vulnerabilities have implications for their investment rate and employment growth. This provides further insights into the transmission of monetary policy to economic activity.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys are insightful because PMIs are released in advance of official hard data and are typically strongly correlated with these. This Box reports that after losing some predictive capacity during pandemic-related lockdowns and reopenings, the euro area composite output PMI is once again a reliable timely indicator for nowcasting euro area real GDP growth.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
Emission reduction measures have been adopted at both country and European Union (EU) levels. This box assesses the impact on euro area real GDP and inflation of green fiscal discretionary measures as included in the December 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. Since these measures are unlikely to be sufficient to fully achieve the EU targets for emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable energy production, model simulations are used to illustrate the medium-term impact of alternative transition policy scenarios. These simulations suggest modest downside risks to GDP and upside risks to inflation from transition policies to achieve EU targets, but the effects depend on the transition policy mix.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
7 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
The natural rate of interest is defined as the real rate of interest that is neither expansionary nor contractionary. r* is unobservable and its estimation is fraught with a host of measurement and model-specification challenges. A wide range of estimates obtained from a suite of models and approaches suggests that cyclical measures of euro area r* have been edging higher recently. Yet slow-moving estimates anchored to long-run economic trends are unlikely to have risen measurably.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
7 February 2024
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 2 February 2024
3 February 2024
INTERVIEW
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Jonathan Witteman on 29 January 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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1 February 2024
SPEECH
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the seminar at Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) in Rome
31 January 2024
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kolja Rudzio
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
26 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 70 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 2 and 10 January 2024, aggregate activity is likely to have stagnated or contracted slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023 and was expected to remain stable or grow only very modestly in the first quarter of 2024. Widespread uncertainty was said to be holding back recovery and the employment outlook deteriorating. Growth in selling prices remained moderate in the fourth quarter of 2023, with some further moderation expected in the short term amid stable or declining non-labour costs and an anticipated easing of wage growth.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
25 January 2024
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 25 January 2024
25 January 2024
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
23 January 2024
PRESS RELEASE
Related
13 January 2024
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Federico Fubini
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 30 January 2024
Details
Abstract
This box analyses recent developments in the net interest income of households and firms in the euro area as a whole and in the largest euro area countries, against the backdrop of rising interest rates. Net interest income is a direct channel through which the ECB transmits policy rate changes to savers and borrowers. Over the last decade net interest income has been negative for households and firms at the aggregate sectoral level. Interest-bearing assets, which affect the interest received by households and firms, and liabilities, which affect interest paid, are important drivers of developments in net interest income. Individual countries demonstrate striking differences in net interest income and interest-bearing assets and liabilities, largely due to specific structural factors.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2023, from 2 August to 31 October 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 12 January 2024
Details
Abstract
The disposable income of households, as measured in the national accounts, benefited from rising labour income and continued strong growth in non-labour income in the first half of 2023. But not all components of income generate a positive cash flow for households. This mainly concerns non-labour income (excluding net fiscal income), which benefited from the exceptionally strong growth in gross operating surplus and the strong increase in financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM). These two components do not generate positive cash flow for households and may therefore not be reflected in households’ income perceptions, which recently lagged behind the positive income developments as measured in the national accounts. One indicator of growth in household income that comes closer to household perceptions is compensation of employees. Looking ahead, the negative assessment by households of recent real income growth appears to be consistent with the muted outlook for private consumption.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 30 January 2024
Details
Abstract
According to the estimates of major international institutions, the euro area output gap remained negative or very close to zero in the aftermath of the pandemic and at the onset of the war in Ukraine, despite the rise in euro area core inflation. This contrasts with most available historical data, which show a positive association of a rise in inflation above its medium-run average with an increase in the output gap. This may reflect the fact that demand shocks have historically had a larger effect on the business cycle relative to supply shocks. However, the shocks that hit the euro area after 2020 – disruptions in supply chains and significant increases in input prices – predominantly came from the supply side of the economy. This box explores how accounting for the role of temporary supply shocks in determining potential output can restore the positive association of the output gap with high inflation after 2020. First, the box discusses the concept of potential output as used by most international organisations. It then looks at indicators that could capture recent exceptional demand and supply conditions. Lastly, using information on these indicators, the box proposes complementary slack measures that better reflect inflationary pressures in times of temporary supply shocks.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Details
Abstract
The US Treasury securities market is the largest and most liquid in the world. Recently, however, its liquidity has declined owing to a combination of factors, including monetary policy tightening and elevated uncertainty about inflation and growth. At the same time, leveraged funds have built up unusually large net short positions in the US Treasury futures market. This box provides empirical evidence that the impact of a US monetary policy shock on domestic and global bond markets may vary depending on conditions in the US Treasury market. Specifically, the results suggest that the effect of a US monetary policy shock might be stronger when market liquidity is low or when net short positions of leveraged funds are large.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
10 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 11 January 2024
Details
Abstract
The current monetary policy tightening cycle has led to increases in bank deposit rates, albeit to a lesser extent than in the past. In part this reflects the transition from negative interest rates to rates well into positive territory. When interest rates were very low, spreads between deposit and policy rates became compressed or even negative, as banks were reluctant to charge negative rates to their retail depositors. Consequently, some time was needed in the initial phase of the current tightening cycle for spreads to normalise. During that period, policy rate hikes were matched by only minor increases in deposit rates. The current round of monetary policy tightening has had an impact on portfolio allocation by incentivising shifts from overnight deposits to time deposits and bonds. It has also weakened money creation by (i) bringing credit expansion to a halt, (ii) reabsorbing money in circulation as the Eurosystem’s monetary policy portfolio contracts, and (iii) leading banks to repay central bank funding and replace it with long-term bonds. Both portfolio shifts and the contractionary monetary dynamics have resulted in negative growth rates of unprecedented size for M1 and M3.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
10 January 2024
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 14th edition of Spain Investors Day
9 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Details
Abstract
Manufacturing activity has been weak since the end of 2021, while market services activity has started to slow down more recently. This box uses a lead-lag analysis to examine how developments in manufacturing are correlated with services activity. It then assesses the implications of the recent monetary policy tightening for the near-term outlook across sectors through the lens of an empirical model. The lead-lag analysis shows that current dynamics in manufacturing contain information for near-term dynamics in services activity. The model-based assessment shows that monetary policy shocks have a larger and faster impact on manufacturing than on services and are consistent with a broadening of the impact of monetary policy tightening across sectors during 2023.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
22 December 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Meike Schreiber und Markus Zydra on 18 December 2023
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
18 December 2023
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. So why do we talk so much about climate change? In this post on The ECB Blog, we show how a hotter climate affects prices and the economy and discuss how this impacts the task of central banks.
Details
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
14 December 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 14 December 2023
14 December 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
5 December 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi on 1 December 2023
30 November 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany
29 November 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Ruben Mooijman and Ariane van Caloen, on 23 November 2023
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
Select your language
28 November 2023
SPEECH
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy, Harvard University
27 November 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
23 November 2023
SPEECH
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Executive Board Member at the European Central Bank, for a speech at the 35th anniversary of the Porto Business School
22 November 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, Berlin
21 November 2023
SPEECH
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Economic Policy Lecture conference organised by the University of Würzburg in Würzburg
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
21 November 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the high-level public discussion “Inflation kills democracy” on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the currency reform in Germany in 1923, organised by the German Ministry of Finance in Berlin, Germany
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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15 November 2023
THE ECB BLOG
When given the chance, what do media ask the ECB about? You might think journalists focus purely on core monetary policy topics, but the reality is more varied, and who is asking plays a role. Here is what we find, and why it matters for the central bank.
Details
JEL Code
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
13 November 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 26th Frankfurt Euro Finance Week
9 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
Since its launch in 2003, the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) has provided valuable early indications for the assessment of bank lending conditions in the euro area. This article reviews the role of the BLS at the ECB over the last 20 years. It highlights that past periods are informative for a better understanding of bank lending conditions in the current monetary policy tightening period and the changing environment in which banks operate. The article also points to the value of the BLS for analysing the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures on bank lending in the euro area, as well as the impact of other measures from supervisory and fiscal authorities. It highlights that both credit risk factors and banks’ balance sheet situation play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending conditions, while their actual tightening contribution has varied across historical periods. The article also highlights current challenges facing euro area banks and the need to monitor possible vulnerabilities which may affect the transmission of monetary policy via banks.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
9 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box first analyses a bottom-up composite index of business activity expectations across sectors derived from the European Commission’s business survey. It then assesses the role of demand-side and supply-side drivers of the index, using disaggregated data on expectations and limits to production from the same survey. The bottom-up composite index of business activity expectations appears to be a good leading indicator of real GDP. According to the index, business activity expectations have deteriorated since mid-2022, with the decline occurring earlier than the weakening of economic growth in the euro area. An empirical model is then used to assess the impact of drivers on business activity expectations. The model captures historical business cycle patterns. It shows that recent trends in business activity expectations were driven by deteriorating demand, partly offset by improved supply. A granular model-based decomposition suggests that tightening financial conditions and flagging product demand were the main drag on business activity expectations across sectors in the third quarter of 2023.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
9 November 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Albina Kenda
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
8 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box describes recent developments in housing rents in the euro area, also comparing them with developments in the United States. In the post-COVID period, increases in euro area rents have been moderate, despite a notable pick-up since mid-2022. This stands in contrast to the United States, where rent inflation has been a key driver of the post-pandemic inflation surge. Such differences are linked not only to measurement issues, but also to structural features of the housing market and regulatory specificities. Rent regulation is more prevalent in the euro area, where such institutional features have so far acted as a brake on rent rises.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
8 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box studies how the transmission of monetary policy is affected by the growing service intensity of the euro area economy. The results show that higher service intensity dampens the impact of monetary policy on economic activity. At the same time, this dampening effect is moderate: we estimate that the increase in the service intensity observed since the introduction of the euro has reduced the real impact of monetary policy by less than 10%.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
8 November 2023
SPEECH
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Latvijas Banka Economic Conference 2023
7 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box highlights the recent inversion of the euro area and US yield curves and considers its information content for the future state of these economies. The slope of the yield curve is currently negative and the most steeply inverted it has been in decades for both the euro area and the United States. Among other factors, a negative slope may reflect investors’ expectations that the macroeconomic outlook will worsen, inflation will decline and longer-term yields will be lower as growth slows. In the past, the slope has typically had statistical predictive power for economic downturns. Recent estimates based on this indicator point to a high probability of a recession in the next 12 months in both jurisdictions. However, estimated recession probabilities are considerably lower when the models include information from additional financial indicators and oil prices, and when they account for the yield impact of the balance sheet policies of central banks. The analysis therefore highlights that a simple translation of the current historically negative yield curve slopes into a high recession probability would be an incomplete assessment.
JEL Code
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
6 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc survey of leading firms operating in the euro area, looking at current trends in global production location and input sourcing, and their impact on activity and prices. The responses indicate that firms increasingly expect to respond to heightened geopolitical risk. In the next five years, more so than in the last five years, firms expect to diversify the location of their operations and their sources of inputs, and to move operations and supply chains to countries that are geographically and geopolitically closer to the final points of sale. Many firms that source critical inputs from China are reducing this exposure. Geopolitical risk is now the most important factor behind decisions to relocate operations into the EU, while demand and cost factors still drive relocations out of the EU. Overall, the aggregate impact which relocation decisions will have on the share of value added generated by firms in the EU is unclear, but such decisions have already pushed up prices and will continue to do so – albeit to a lesser extent – in the next few years.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
L23 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Organization of Production
2 November 2023
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the annual Homer Jones Memorial Lecture
Annexes
2 November 2023
SPEECH
2 November 2023
SPEECH
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Limerick, Ireland
30 October 2023
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the Business Leadership Forum organised by IE University, Madrid, 30 October 2023
27 October 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 56 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 25 September and 5 October, aggregate activity appeared to have contracted in the third quarter of 2023 and was expected to contract further in the fourth quarter. While there were still notable differences across sectors, tailwinds supporting activity in some sectors were reportedly fading and headwinds in other sectors continued to hold activity back. The growth rate of selling prices continued to slow in the third quarter of 2023 and further moderation was anticipated for the fourth quarter. This reflected a recovery of supply alongside moderating demand in some sectors, as well as relatively stable non-labour input costs. Wage growth remained strong but was expected to moderate slightly in 2024. The effect of tightening financing conditions over the past 12 months was notably greater in the industrial sector than in the services sector and was expected, on balance, to intensify in the next 12 months.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
26 October 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Athens, 26 October 2023
26 October 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
24 October 2023
PRESS RELEASE
Related
16 October 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Marcel de Boer, Marijn Jongsma and Joost van Kuppeveld on 11 October 2023
English
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14 October 2023
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-eight meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
8 October 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl on 2 October 2023
English
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6 October 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Marina Klepo on 29 September 2023
English
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4 October 2023
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the First Annual Conference organised by the Central Bank of Cyprus
27 September 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 22 September 2023
26 September 2023
SPEECH
Welcome address (presentation slides) at the joint European Central Bank - Banque de France - Centre for Economic Policy Research conference "Monetary Policy Challenges for European Macroeconomies" in Paris
22 September 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jennifer Schonberger
22 September 2023
SPEECH
Dinner speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money Marketeers of New York University
20 September 2023
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, Springtij Forum
English
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20 September 2023
SPEECH
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Association of German Banks
15 September 2023
PRESS RELEASE
14 September 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 14 September 2023
14 September 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
4 September 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar organised by the European Economics & Financial Centre
31 August 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research on “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2023”
Annexes
31 August 2023
SPEECH
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box reviews Eurosystem staff projections of public wages, focusing on their response to inflation. It concludes that, after experiencing a large cut in real terms in 2022, public wages are projected to grow cumulatively over the period 2023-25 at rates higher than inflation. It also shows that projections of public wages reflect substantial heterogeneity at country level. Projected nominal public wage growth is stronger in countries that have experienced high levels of inflation in the recent past, even in the absence of institutional arrangements for automatic price indexation of public wages, but is more restrained in countries with high levels of public debt.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
Details
Abstract
Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) shows that consumers’ expectations for interest rates on mortgages and savings accounts have increased, in line with actual interest rate developments. Since June 2022 an increasing share of respondents, particularly among those with an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) which are generally more directly exposed to interest rate changes, has favoured lower interest rates. A growing share of households with an ARM also expects difficulties in meeting their mortgage payments in the near future and intends to refinance the mortgage contract. In line with their higher exposure to interest rate changes, spending expectations of respondents with an ARM are more sensitive to changes in expected interest rates. Overall, the results of the CES suggest that consumers have been progressively incorporating the impact of higher interest rates into their spending decisions.
JEL Code
E03 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Behavioral Macroeconomics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
9 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
Details
Abstract
This article presents a model-based assessment of the short to medium-term economic impact of carbon pricing aimed at mitigating climate change. It addresses the high level of uncertainty in gauging the effects of carbon price increases by employing a suite of macroeconomic models. Under the main scenario, the loss in euro area annual GDP growth is contained and the inflation impact is modest, implying a limited output/inflation trade-off for monetary policy. The scenario supports the transition to a low-carbon economy, but the implied reduction in carbon emissions makes only a limited contribution to achieving the EU’s intermediate emission reduction target for 2030. Accordingly, reaching the EU’s climate goals will require a mixture of ambitious carbon pricing, additional regulatory action and technological innovation.
JEL Code
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
9 August 2023
THE ECB BLOG
Words matter as much as actions for central banks. Because changes in tone can presage shifts in monetary policy. We have created an index to measure and compare the tone of policy communication by the ECB and the US Fed. This ECB Blog post talks you through the findings.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
8 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the factors determining household perceptions of the attractiveness of housing as an investment. It finds that these perceptions differ depending on the demographic and economic characteristics of households. Using a linear probability regression model, the box also shows that higher perceptions of housing as a good investment are associated with higher expectations for economic growth, personal income growth and house price growth, as well as lower expectations for inflation and mortgage rates. Combining the model estimates with the average expectations of households surveyed in the CES at each point in time, the box derives an expectations-based indicator of households’ perceptions of housing as a good investment. This indicator has declined significantly since June 2021, mainly driven by expectations of higher mortgage interest rates, reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions in general.
JEL Code
R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
3 August 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bocconi University
30 July 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Anne Cheyvialle and Florentin Collomp on 28 July 2023
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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28 July 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 26 June and 5 July, aggregate activity continued to stagnate in the second quarter of 2023, with differences across sectors still notable. Activity declined in the construction and intermediate goods sectors and in related transport and logistics services. However, consumer spending was proving more resilient than many expected. The growth rate of selling prices continued to decelerate, especially in the industrial sector, as non-labour input costs stabilised. Expectations for wage growth remained strong but showed some signs of moderation when looking forwards to 2024.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
27 July 2023
PRESS RELEASE
27 July 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 27 July 2023
Related
27 July 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
27 July 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
27 July 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
27 July 2023
PRESS RELEASE
31 August 2023
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
25 July 2023
PRESS RELEASE
12 July 2023
SPEECH
Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Panel Discussion on Banking Solvency and Monetary Policy, NBER Summer Institute 2023 Macro, Money and Financial Frictions Workshop
Annexes
12 July 2023
SPEECH
7 July 2023
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at King’s College London
Annexes
7 July 2023
SPEECH
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box provides an analysis of the retrenchment recorded in euro area external financial flows in 2022 – the largest since the global financial crisis – making use of new, more granular data published in the euro area balance of payments and international investment position statistics. The retrenchment was most pronounced in portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Euro area investors’ retrenchment in portfolio investment in 2022 was mainly driven by investment funds, while insurance corporations and pension funds offset the reversal in outflows to some extent. As regards foreign portfolio investment in the euro area in 2022, net purchases of euro area investment fund shares dried up almost completely, while foreign investors’ appetite for euro area debt securities started to return. The retrenchment in FDI mainly reflected “financialised” transactions by multinational enterprises vis-à-vis affiliated “other financial institutions” in euro area financial centres, while FDI flows to the non-financial corporate sector remained more stable.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
According to the recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), conducted between 6 March and 14 April 2023, euro area firms expect their selling prices to increase on average by 6.1% over the next 12 months. Selling price increases are expected to be higher for firms in the retail sector than for those in the non-retail sector. Input costs (mainly related to materials and energy) and financing costs are important factors for all firms when setting future selling prices. For firms in both the retail and non-retail sectors, expected increases in selling prices are higher for firms that anticipate an increase in their turnover. Manufacturing firms with higher past producer price increases expect a smaller increase in future selling prices over the next 12 months.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box examines the wage share in the euro area, which has edged down since the start of the pandemic, as workers have so far not been able to recover real wage losses amidst high inflation and robust profit margins. The decline is in most sectors, except for less contact-intensive private services and public services. The reduced wage share suggests that part of the recent terms-of-trade shock and its impact on consumer price inflation has been absorbed by workers and that second-round effects from wages on inflation have so far been relatively moderate.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2023, from 8 February to 9 May 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box looks at how unit profits have contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures, using national accounts data up to the first quarter of 2023. It analyses the contribution made by unit profits using a broad profit indicator based on gross operating surplus and mixed income, as well as more narrowly defined profit indicators derived from the national accounts (which are closer to business profits). It also shows how the current signals from unit profits based on national accounts data correspond to those of indicators of mark-ups and profit margins derived from corporate accounts. This analysis shows that unit profits have grown strongly of late and made a visible contribution to domestic price pressures in the euro area. This is true for both the broad indicator of unit profits and more narrowly defined profit indicators. The box also shows that in an environment characterised by surging intermediate consumption costs, it is possible for unit profits to increase strongly and have an upward effect on inflation while mark-ups and profit margin indicators derived from corporate accounts remain broadly unchanged.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box analyses sentiment indices of profits and investment that have been compiled from a new data source, namely earnings call transcripts of listed euro area firms. It shows that these data series have correlated well with standard investment and profit series over the past two decades. It also demonstrates that profit sentiment has improved since the third quarter of 2021, while corporate investment sentiment rose slightly further in the second quarter of 2023, despite tightening financing conditions. At the sectoral level, profit sentiment in the services and utilities sectors has held up better than it has in the manufacturing sector since last year. In addition, an indicator of financial risk extracted from the earnings call data shows that firms are highly concerned about rising financing costs and perceive tighter financing conditions as a clear risk.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, households in the euro area and the United States have accumulated a remarkable stock of savings, which exceeds the pre-pandemic trend and provides a boost to private consumption. This box documents how, in the euro area, the stock of excess savings is mainly held in illiquid assets, which are not readily available for consumption. It also shows that, despite some differences in the euro area and the United States, excess savings are concentrated among wealthy individuals, who generally have a lower marginal propensity to consume. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, the box shows that the consumption impulse from the immediate use of such excess savings is dampened by the anticipation of a future expansion in demand, as households smooth their consumption patterns over time. Overall, the results suggest that the consumption impulse from excess savings accumulated during the pandemic has declined in both economies since the second half of 2021 and has been lower in the euro area compared with the United States.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
27 June 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023 on “Macroeconomic stabilisation in a volatile inflation environment” in Sintra, Portugal
26 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
Since 2020 the euro area has been hit by a succession of extraordinary adverse shocks: the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global supply chain strains, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the related energy price hike. This article reviews the main developments in economic activity between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2022. Empirical analysis shows that demand forces related to the reopening of the economy, the strong policy support over that period and, more recently, the absorption of the adverse shocks have contributed to the post-pandemic recovery.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
19 June 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Euro50 Group conference on “New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment”
Annexes
19 June 2023
SPEECH
19 June 2023
SPEECH
Background slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, for dialogue with Matteo Maggiori on the occasion of the award of the Germán Bernácer Prize
16 June 2023
SPEECH
Remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the G30 dinner in Amsterdam
15 June 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 15 June 2023
15 June 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
15 June 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
13 July 2023
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
7 June 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Wouter Vervenne and Kris van Hamme on 31 May 2023
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
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2 June 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
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1 June 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “Deutscher Sparkassentag 2023”, Hanover
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
25 May 2023
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
19 May 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference on Financial Stability and Monetary Policy in the honour of Charles Goodhart
Annexes
19 May 2023
SPEECH
19 May 2023
THE ECB BLOG
At times, media reports on ECB monetary policy refer to information from unidentified Eurosystem sources. This ECB Blog post takes a closer look at such leaks. They tend to go against prevailing trends in short-term rates and can trigger major market reactions even though they are not generally informative about upcoming decisions.
Details
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
14 May 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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10 May 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Shogo Akagawa on 8 May 2023
9 May 2023
SPEECH
Presentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hessischer Kreis e. V.
English
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4 May 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 4 May 2023
Related
4 May 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
4 May 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
4 May 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
1 June 2023
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
2 May 2023
PRESS RELEASE
26 April 2023
PRESS RELEASE
Related
26 April 2023
EURO MONEY MARKET
25 April 2023
PRESS RELEASE
25 April 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 18 April 2023
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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24 April 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck on 20 April 2023
19 April 2023
SPEECH
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) in Mannheim
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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19 April 2023
SPEECH
Keynote address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Enterprise Ireland Summit 2023
14 April 2023
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-seventh meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
6 April 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gregory Savva on 5 April
5 April 2023
SPEECH
Lecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Cyprus
1 April 2023
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 34th edition of “The outlook for the economy and finance”, organized by the European House – Ambrosetti
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth maintenance periods of 2022, from 2 November 2022 to 7 February 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 March 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on 22 March by Kolja Rudzio
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
28 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
In 2022 the ECB conducted a climate risk stress test of some of the major financial exposures on the Eurosystem balance sheet. This box details the key features of the exercise and its main outcomes.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
27 March 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by Columbia University and SGH Macro Advisors
Annexes
27 March 2023
SPEECH
26 March 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Daniel Murray
22 March 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Global shocks, policy spillovers and geo-strategic risks: how to coordinate policies” at The ECB and its Watchers XXIII Conference
22 March 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “The ECB and Its Watchers XXIII” conference
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
20 March 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
16 March 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 16 March 2023
Related
16 March 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
16 March 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
16 March 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
20 April 2023
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
6 March 2023
SPEECH
Lecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Trinity College Dublin
5 March 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Adolfo Lorente, from El Correo
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
2 March 2023
SPEECH
Speech and Slides by Isabel Schnabel at Money Market Contact Group (MMCG)
1 March 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nicholas Owen
28 February 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on Friday, 24 February 2023 by Balázs Korányi and Frank Siebelt
27 February 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted M.C. Govardhana Rangan on 24 February 2023
25 February 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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17 February 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Alexander Weber on 15 February 2023
16 February 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by the Centre for European Reform, the Delegation of the European Union to the United Kingdom and the ECB Representative Office in London
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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16 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box updates the analysis published in April 2022 that reviewed the Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections published since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The accuracy of short-term inflation projections made by Eurosystem and ECB staff deteriorated after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, projection accuracy improved in the final quarter of 2022. Errors related to conditioning assumptions for energy commodity prices and the pass-through of those prices to consumer prices (complicated by the uncertain impact of fiscal policy measures) continue to account for a significant albeit declining share of the total staff inflation projection errors. The remaining errors are likely to relate to the impact of global supply chain bottlenecks and reopening effects following the pandemic. In addition, the exceptional size of commodity price shocks may have led to a much faster pass-through, while the high inflationary environment may have enabled easier repricing and required faster resetting of prices than had been observed in the past. In comparative terms, other international institutions and private forecasters have under-predicted short-term euro area inflation to a similar extent. Eurosystem and ECB staff are continuing to re-evaluate their models to further improve the accuracy of their projection techniques and to provide additional analyses that can inform projections in times of high uncertainty.
JEL Code
J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
15 February 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
13 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This article assesses the relation between fiscal policy and inflation, with a focus on the euro area and the period 2022-25 (corresponding to the horizon of the December 2022 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area). Overall, the article concludes that, even without the discretionary policy response to the high energy prices and inflation (assessed at close to 2% of GDP over the 2022-23 period), the euro area budget balance could be negatively affected by the current high inflation beyond the short term. This is primarily explained by the nature of the inflation shock, which has a substantial external, energy-driven component, and its large size. Such factors lead to more limited gains on the revenue side of the budget, which in turn can easily be outweighed in the following years by extra spending pressures. In terms of the euro area debt-to-GDP ratio, the analysis shows that a negative impact on economic activity from an adverse supply shock, given the monetary policy reaction, may outweigh the positive initial impact of higher inflation through the denominator effect. The discretionary fiscal policy measures that have so far been adopted to shield the economy from the impact of high inflation in turn lower the inflationary pressures over the 2022-23 period, with a broad estimated reversal of the effect afterwards. The degree to which these fiscal measures will influence price dynamics is highly uncertain.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
10 February 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 10 February 2023
8 February 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra and Meike Schreiber
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
7 February 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Webinar Finanzwende
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
7 February 2023
PRESS RELEASE
3 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 4 and 12 January 2023, aggregate activity had broadly stagnated or contracted mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but with notable differences across sectors. The short-term outlook for activity remained subdued with much uncertainty, but there was increased hope of a pick-up in 2023. Selling prices continued to increase in aggregate, but at a moderating pace and with more variability across sectors and a less certain outlook. Wage growth was now the predominant cost concern, although wage expectations remained broadly unchanged from the previous survey round. Despite greater wage cost pressure and very high uncertainty regarding the future path of energy prices, most contacts expected lower price growth in 2023 than in 2022.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
2 February 2023
PRESS RELEASE
2 February 2023
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 2 February 2023
2 February 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
2 February 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
2 February 2023
PRESS RELEASE
2 March 2023
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
31 January 2023
PRESS RELEASE
Related
24 January 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andreas Kröner, Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
Select your language
17 January 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Wolf on 12 January 2023
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the information that the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) provides on future growth in loans to firms and households for house purchase in the euro area. The survey has proved to be invaluable for assessing the passthrough of monetary policy to borrowers via banks, for obtaining early information on turning points in lending conditions, and for understanding changes in loan demand and lending conditions during exceptional periods, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. First, simple cross-correlations reveal a strong relation between BLS indicators and actual loan growth several quarters ahead. Second, BLS indicators help improve loan forecasts. In terms of loans to firms, the credit standards and loan demand reported in the BLS provide additional information that can be used when forecasting lending, while for housing loans, forecasts are improved by taking into account reported demand in particular. Finally, bank-level data confirm that BLS responses also reveal information on loan developments at the individual bank level. Overall, recent developments regarding BLS credit standards and loan demand point to a deceleration of growth in loans to firms and households in the coming quarters.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the liquidity conditions and the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2022, from 27 July to 1 November.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the link between firms’ financing conditions and the euro area business cycle. For information on financing conditions of firms, the box uses results from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). Monetary policy is shown to affect changes in firms’ financing gaps – the difference between the change in demand for and the change in the availability of external financing – as well as their expectations about future availability of finance. At the current juncture, firms report increasing financing gaps and a deterioration in their expectations about the availability of finance in the period ahead. Such responses from firms are associated with stronger concerns about finance at the firm level. Moreover, financing conditions matter for the aggregate business cycle: increasing financing gaps and lower expected availability of finance foreshadow lower GDP growth.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
On 1 January 2023 Croatia adopted the euro and became the 20th member of the euro area. The Croatian economy is expected to benefit from the elimination of currency risk, as well as lower transaction and borrowing costs. After its accession to the EU in 2013, Croatia made significant progress in addressing macroeconomic imbalances and achieving convergence towards the euro area. It now needs to continue with those reform efforts in order to fully reap the benefits of the euro and to allow adjustment mechanisms to operate efficiently within the enlarged currency area.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article provides an initial review of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), with a focus on its objectives, implementation, and effectiveness. The ECB launched the PEPP in March 2020 in response to the extraordinary economic and financial shock brought about by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Implementation of the programme was flexible, spreading purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. The PEPP was instrumental in supporting market functioning and the transmission of the monetary policy stance, and thus in countering pandemic-related risks to price stability.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
11 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the impact of the recent increase in energy prices on real consumer spending in the euro area. The empirical framework relies on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model and identifies adverse energy supply shocks that lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade, as captured by the ratio between the GDP deflator and the private consumption deflator, and a decline in real consumer spending. It finds that energy supply shocks have significantly weighed on total private consumption in recent quarters, with durable goods consumption being particularly affected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
10 January 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm
Annexes
10 January 2023
SPEECH
10 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021. But there are major differences between inflation developments in these two economies. In particular, energy inflation has been much higher in the euro area – leading to higher headline inflation than in the United States in recent months. As the euro area is significantly more dependent on energy imports than the United States, the rise in energy prices constitutes a strong adverse terms-of-trade shock to euro area income. Amid the resulting relatively slower recovery from the pandemic in the euro area, the contribution of demand to core inflation has increased more gradually and later in the euro area than in the United States. In addition, the short-term outlook for economic growth is weaker in the euro area than in the United States and the US labour market is tighter, implying a relatively smaller impetus from economic activity and the labour market to inflation in the euro area. Looking ahead, professional forecasters expect inflation to be somewhat more persistent in the United States than in the euro area.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
9 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines cross-country developments in compensation per employee since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic has strongly affected wage developments across euro area countries, reflecting standard cyclical and structural determinants as well as novel factors, such as differences in the size and impact of the shock or the specificities of national job retention schemes.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
9 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article discusses wage developments and the main factors that have influenced them since the start of the pandemic. First, it reviews developments in a broad range of wage measures for the euro area and discusses their current usefulness as signals of wage pressures. In this context, it illustrates how the growth of compensation per employee was adjusted for the impact of job retention schemes. Second, the article looks at how wage developments have differed across sectors, reflecting the heterogeneous impact of the pandemic shock. Finally, it discusses the impact of inflation on purchasing power of wage incomes and real wage costs in the euro area by examining developments in real consumer and producer wages for the economy as a whole and in its main sectors.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
6 January 2023
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in panel discussion “Global Economic Outlook” organised by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) at 2023 ASSA Annual Meeting, New Orleans
27 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted on 16 December 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
24 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel on 16 December 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
22 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Éric Albert on 15 December and published on 22 December
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
15 December 2022
PRESS RELEASE
15 December 2022
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
15 December 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
15 December 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
19 January 2023
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
7 December 2022
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) annual conference on “Global Perspective 2023”
6 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Ninfole
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
28 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
25 November 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Identifying the medium-term inflation path in the current environment of high inflation, ongoing energy and pandemic-related shocks and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a diagnostic challenge. In his ECB Blog post Philip R. Lane, Member of the ECB’s Executive Board, describes some of the key analytical issues involved.
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
24 November 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference
Annexes
24 November 2022
SPEECH
21 November 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 16 November 2022
18 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the European Banking Congress
16 November 2022
PRESS RELEASE
Related
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
15 November 2022
SPEECH
Dinner speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, on the occasion of the 25th Euro Finance Week, Deutsche Bundesbank
14 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 25th Frankfurt Euro Finance Week
14 November 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the CEPR-EABCN conference on “Finding the Gap: Output Gap Measurement in the Euro Area” held at the European University Institute
Annexes
14 November 2022
SPEECH
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box provides an analysis of recent developments in trade and financial linkages between the euro area and Russia as recorded in the euro area balance of payments. The euro area current account balance vis-à-vis Russia turned from a small surplus into a deficit of 0.5% of euro area GDP between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of this year, thus contributing significantly to the reduction in the euro area’s current account surplus over the same period. The bilateral current account deficit vis-à-vis Russia increased on account of the rising value of nominal imports, largely of energy products, and lower exports driven by EU sanctions. Euro area financial exposures to Russia before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were relatively limited, with foreign direct investment (FDI) being the most important component. Since the start of the war euro area holdings of Russian assets have declined, while liabilities vis-à-vis Russia have increased due to the impact of EU sanctions.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
Carry-over effects describe how much the average growth rate in a given period is affected by developments in the preceding period. The most common application is to quantify how much annual average GDP growth is affected by quarterly developments in the previous year. This box applies this concept to quarterly changes in GDP by interpolating quarterly GDP into monthly observations using monthly indicators. In selecting the appropriate indicator variables, a production perspective is adopted by using industrial production, construction production and an indicator for services production. This sectoral approach is particularly useful in the current environment, given the differences in how sectors are being affected by the sharp and sudden fluctuations in economic conditions.
JEL Code
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
Euro area motor vehicle output fell by approximately one-third between June 2018 and July 2022. This can be explained by factors associated with the more stringent emissions tests implemented in the EU, the EU regulation on carbon dioxide emissions, the transition towards electric vehicles, supply chain disruptions, the rise in energy costs and, more recently, the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. Euro area car exports also decreased at the same time. The transition to greener motor vehicles and the future evolution of supply bottlenecks are key factors shaping the outlook for euro area car production and exports in the coming years.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
9 November 2022
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association COP27 side event on “Investing in and financing the acceleration of sustainable development in a net zero scenario” in Sharm El-Sheikh
9 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
The strong increase in euro area HICP inflation over the past 18 months has placed additional emphasis on monitoring and understanding the behaviour of consumers’ inflation expectations. Data from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey show that, after HICP inflation rose above 2% in July 2021, consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations started to move upwards too. However, this rise in shorter-term (one-year ahead) inflation expectations was much more pronounced than that of more medium-term (three-years ahead) expectations and the term structure of consumers’ inflation expectations remained strongly downward sloping. There is some evidence that the responsiveness of inflation expectations to inflation perceptions has increased recently, but it remains noticeably lower for medium-term inflation expectations. Consumers’ uncertainty surrounding their inflation expectations has also grown. Overall, the upward movement in expectations, the increase in uncertainty surrounding them and rising sensitivity of medium-term expectations to perceived current inflation all call for continued close monitoring and analysis.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
9 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the impact of the recent rise in inflation on low-income households in the euro area. Low-income households face significantly higher effective inflation rates than high-income households, due to a different composition of their consumption basket. Moreover, they are more liquidity-constrained and have less room to buffer sharp increases in their cost of living. Survey-based evidence shows that low-income households perceive the recent government measures aimed at easing the burden of higher energy prices as less adequate than high-income households do. This could suggest that there is potential for government support measures to be more targeted towards low-income households.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
8 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article surveys the literature on consumption risk sharing, focusing on the euro area but also presenting evidence for individual countries, including the United States. The literature finds that risk sharing is weaker in the euro area than between regions or federal states in the individual countries examined. However, our analysis of the response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis indicates that risk sharing in the euro area has been more resilient in this period than it was during the global financial crisis of 2008-10. It suggests that the provision of timely large-scale policy support reduced the risk of cross-border financial flows coming to a sudden halt, thus preventing a severe disruption of private risk sharing. This experience speaks in favour of establishing a common public risk-sharing mechanism in the euro area and completing the banking union and capital markets union. At the same time, the right balance must be found between additional, centralised euro area stabilisation and risk-sharing instruments and credible enforcement of fiscal rules to anchor market expectations of sound public finances.
JEL Code
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
8 November 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck on 3 November 2022
7 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This Box provides an assessment of trends in European trade in goods and the tourism sector in 2022 using Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI). For goods trade, the analysis shows that bottlenecks in the international supply chain tend to precede upward pressures on import prices for intermediate goods. These pressures are now slowly easing as export demand weakens and supply chains adjust. For services, an earlier surge in bookings in the tourism sector has led to higher prices in that sector. Higher input prices in the tourism and recreation sector, waning pent-up demand for travel, falling real incomes and rising uncertainty may start to dampen demand for European tourism and recreation trade in services in the coming months.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, Tourism
4 November 2022
SPEECH
Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, organised by Eesti Pank and dedicated to Professor Ragnar Nurkse
4 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at Energy Prospectives event organised by IESE Business School and Naturgy Foundation
3 November 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Money Market Conference
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
Annexes
3 November 2022
SPEECH
1 November 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Žanete Hāka
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
31 October 2022
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Danmarks Nationalbank conference marking the 40th anniversary of the Danish fixed exchange rate regime
28 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
28 October 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 69 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 26 September and 6 October 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity had broadly stagnated in the third quarter of this year. Parts of the manufacturing sector had suffered declining sales and production, while in others, production growth was sustained by long order books and easing supply constraints. Services activity was more resilient, supported by digitalisation and tourism. The outlook was for a deterioration in activity in the fourth quarter. Price dynamics remained very buoyant in the third quarter, not least given energy cost pressures. However, an increasing number of firms did say that prices in their sector were either at, or nearing, a peak. Wage pressures continued to build and were increasingly becoming an additional cost concern for many firms.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
27 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
27 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
27 October 2022
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
27 October 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
19 October 2022
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB Blog investigates how change in the policy rate affects wages very differently depending on characteristics of employees and firms, such as firms’ size and their access to credit. Results show that the effects are symmetric during times of easing and tightening.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Related
14 October 2022
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-sixth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
14 October 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Dalius Simenas on 10 October 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
11 October 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the SUERF, CGEG|COLUMBIA|SIPA, EIB, SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE conference on “EU and US Perspectives: New Directions for Economic Policy”
10 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
7 October 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
In this box we decompose components of HICP excluding energy and food inflation into those driven predominantly by demand and those driven predominantly by supply shocks. This approach to monitoring inflation was originally developed for the United States. When adapted to the euro area it reveals that both supply and demand factors have contributed strongly to the increase in HICPX inflation since the second half of 2021. Supply factors were dominant at the beginning of the upturn in inflation in the second half of 2021, but demand factors have gradually increased in importance and contributed to a similar extent as supply factors to HICPX inflation over recent months. In recent months, the main contribution to non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation has come from components predominantly driven by supply shocks, whereas services inflation has stemmed more from components predominantly driven by demand.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
30 September 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the “Fight against inflation” at the IV Edition Foro La Toja
Annexes
30 September 2022
SPEECH
29 September 2022
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at a panel at the conference “Future of Central Banking” organised by Lietuvos bankas and the Bank for International Settlements
28 September 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament conference on “Greening monetary policy in times of soaring inflation”
26 September 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
22 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
In-house credit assessment systems (ICASs) of euro area national central banks are an important source of credit risk assessments for credit claims from non-financial corporates. These credit claims can be pledged as collateral in monetary policy operations. Climate change and the transition to a greener economy can affect the growth, financial performance, market position and business model of a company, and hence its creditworthiness. Therefore, as part of the ECB’s action plan for including climate change considerations in monetary policy implementation, the Governing Council has agreed a set of common minimum standards on incorporating these risks in ICAS rating processes. Assessments of climate change risks will mainly focus on the companies most affected and those which pose the highest risk to the Eurosystem. The analysis will be performed at firm level whenever sufficient data is available, using state-of-the-art methods and metrics. All ICASs will comply with the common minimum standards from end-2024 onwards.
JEL Code
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
22 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2022 from 20 April to 26 July.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
22 September 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Florian Schmidt on 15 September 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
21 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
Mitigating climate change requires sustained and multipronged policy efforts, as a matter of urgency. Many initiatives to mitigate climate change are directly linked to fiscal policy, mainly through public spending or taxation. This article provides an overview of existing, required and expected fiscal climate policy efforts to advance the green transition in the euro area, focusing on carbon pricing and green public investment. It also looks at the distributional consequences of carbon pricing.
JEL Code
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
20 September 2022
SPEECH
Karl Otto Pöhl Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, organised by Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Handel, Industrie und Wissenschaft
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
20 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
The strong rise in inflation has renewed attention on longer-term inflation expectations. The distribution of individual longer-term inflation expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has recently recentred around 2%, although some respondents have lately raised their inflation expectations clearly above 2%. Some commentators have argued that movements in the upper “tails” of the inflation expectations’ distribution might signal a possible de-anchoring of expectations. This box takes a closer look at recent movements in long-term inflation expectations, especially of those forecasters currently in the upper tail of the distribution. We find that (a) historically, this tail group's longer-term inflation expectations have been higher, more volatile and more sensitive to realised inflation than the expectations of the rest of respondents, (b) respondents in this tail group perceive the current inflation spike to be more persistent, and (c) the evidence suggests that their expectations have not led movements in those of the rest of the professional forecasters.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a temporary decrease in the labour market activity of older workers in the euro area. Our analysis finds that a part of the decrease was driven by a pandemic-induced shift in the retirement decisions of older workers, affecting around 175,000 people. This represents 0.5% of the labour force aged 55-74 retiring earlier than planned due to the pandemic. The heightened economic uncertainty and health risks stemming from the pandemic persuaded some older workers either to bide their time before returning to work or to retire early. Early retirement was most pronounced for workers in poorer health, stressing the growing importance of health risks for labour market developments.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
19 September 2022
PRESS RELEASE
19 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
Against a background of rising mortgage rates, this box investigates the impact of changes in mortgage rates on euro area house prices and housing investment through linear and non-linear local projections. The model evidence suggests that housing market dynamics are very sensitive to mortgage rates, especially in a low interest rate environment. At the current juncture, this points to a significant risk of a marked slowdown of the euro area housing market. Yet, pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences, which are not captured by the models, could counteract higher mortgage rates and could potentially increase uncertainty surrounding the housing outlook.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
16 September 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 9 September
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
15 September 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the CIRSF (Research Centre on Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector) Annual International Conference 2022 “The future of the EU financial system in a new geo-economic context”
14 September 2022
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Meeting of the Money Market Contact Group
14 September 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Women and men shop differently and have different perceptions of prices and inflation. This ECB Blog post examines how inflation expectations are formed and revised across gender and why that matters for central banks.
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
Related
12 September 2022
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the seventh ECB Annual Research Conference
8 September 2022
PRESS RELEASE
8 September 2022
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
8 September 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
8 September 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
8 September 2022
PRESS RELEASE
6 October 2022
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
29 August 2022
SPEECH
Remarks for high-level panel “High Inflation and Other Challenges for Monetary Policy” by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Annual Meeting 2022 of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), Barcelona
27 August 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
24 August 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Communication with the general public matters for monetary policy. Although it is hard for central banks to reach out to the wider public, a recent study shows that explaining the inflation target and the ECB strategy to consumers can enhance its credibility.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Related
18 August 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt on 16 August 2022
10 August 2022
THE ECB BLOG
As part of our monetary policy strategy review we adopted a new symmetric 2% inflation target. One year on, we examine how the strategy review has helped anchor financial analysts’ inflation expectations. We also show that recent policy normalisation is grounded in our strategy.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Related
3 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box reviews wage share dynamics and potential second-round effects on inflation at times of energy price increases. Compared to a well-known episode with some similar features – the OPEC oil embargo in October 1973 – recent energy price increases have so far had limited implications for labour income and the GDP deflator. This contained impact reflects the relatively mild terms-of-trade loss and subdued real wage dynamics today compared to the 1970s. However, the experience in the United States in both episodes shows that significant increases in the GDP deflator may arise even in the presence of weak real wage growth. A model-based analysis finds that the transmission of energy price increases to inflation, and in particular the emergence of second-round effects, has been more limited or even absent since the start of monetary union. Nevertheless, high and persistent inflation increases the risk of second-round effects materialising via higher wages and profit margins.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
3 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article takes stock of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on business investment dynamics in the euro area and presents evidence on the main drivers of investment, as well as the opportunities, challenges and risks for its recovery, also in investment with respect to digitalisation and greening needs. Euro area business investment fell sharply in the first half of 2020. The considerable rebound and subsequent investment dynamics have been heterogenous across countries and types of investment, and the rebound has been overall somewhat weaker in the euro area than in the United States. While the recovery has been helped by substantial support from monetary and fiscal policy, headwinds such as increased uncertainty, commodity price rises and lingering supply bottlenecks risk delaying investment decisions and leading companies to further increase savings. Meanwhile, spending on further digitalising and “greening” the economy, as reflected in available investment data, has accelerated throughout the pandemic. Investment opportunities in these areas are considerable, and so are the challenges, which are mainly related to financing, regulation and incentives.
JEL Code
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
1 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
Oil prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been volatile ever since. As the current increase in oil prices mainly reflects supply-side factors, it could also affect potential output. This box uses several approaches to assess the channels through which oil price hikes have an impact on potential output and to estimate the possible magnitude of the impact of the current shock. The quantitative estimates proposed should be regarded with caution given the current volatility in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil and the uncertainty surrounding the amplitude of the shock, which will depend on how the conflict develops.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
1 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box uses the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to assess euro area household saving behaviour since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Most respondents reported that during the pandemic they were not able to increase their savings. Those that were able to do so reported that COVID-19-related restrictions/fear of infection and precautionary motives were the most important reasons for increasing their savings. In March 2021 the bulk of the savings accumulated during the pandemic were not expected to be spent until at least the spring of 2022. Most respondents expected to return to, but not exceed, their pre-COVID-19 levels of consumption as soon as pandemic restrictions were relaxed, suggesting limited scope for widespread pent-up demand during the recovery. Pandemic-related savings were concentrated among higher-income households with a relatively low exposure to energy-intensive expenditure. This limits the extent to which these savings are able to shield the ongoing recovery of consumption from the adverse impact of the recent surge in energy prices.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
29 July 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Tõnis Oja on 25 July
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
28 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Non-immigrants in the euro area are on average better off than immigrants in terms of wages and wealth. These differences can cause immigrants to react differently to economic shocks and changing financial conditions. As economic inequality matters for monetary policy transmission, the ECB Blog takes a closer look.
23 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Raising interest rates is a landmark moment on our journey towards lower inflation, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
22 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 29 June 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the second quarter of the year. Despite clear signs of weakening demand in some sectors, reflecting the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, the recovery in sectors benefiting from the relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions was particularly strong and generally exceeded expectations. Overall, contacts expected activity growth to slow in the coming months, with widespread uncertainty and concern surrounding the outlook after the summer. The frequency and magnitude of selling price increases remained high, as substantial increases in costs (particularly from energy and transport) were passed through the value chain. Most contacts anticipated a similar trend in selling price increases in the third quarter, but some were more hesitant in view of faltering demand, pointing to a potential for some moderation in the overall rate of increase.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
21 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
21 July 2022
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
21 July 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
21 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
21 July 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
25 August 2022
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
19 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
18 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
8 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB is reducing the carbon footprint in its portfolio and pushing banks to better manage climate risks. Within our mandate, we incorporate climate change considerations into our monetary policy and banking supervision, say Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel.
7 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the selling price expectations among euro area firms based on the results from the most recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area. To better understand the price-setting behaviour of firms in a context of high inflationary pressures, the April 2022 Survey included additional questions on the selling price expectations of firms and factors influencing their pricing decisions. By providing the perspective of firms, this box sheds light on the current inflation outlook.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
4 July 2022
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit
1 July 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament’s Innovation Day “The EU in the world created by the Ukraine war”
28 June 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022 on “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” in Sintra, Portugal
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
The debt financing structure of euro area firms has broadened since the introduction of the euro. While bank loans still account for a major share of corporate debt, euro area firms have increasingly resorted to bond financing over the past decade and a half. Empirical evidence suggests that this shift in firms’ debt financing structures affects the transmission of shocks to the euro area economy. While corporate bonds and loans typically respond in a similar procyclical manner to exogenous changes in business investment, bond issuance tends to mildly cushion the credit contraction resulting from adverse supply shocks. The evidence also indicates that a higher share of bond financing strengthens the transmission of monetary policy measures that primarily operate via longer-term yields, whereas short-term rate changes tend to exert stronger real effects in economies that are more dependent on loans. From a broader perspective, the higher share of bond financing renders euro area firms more resilient against crises concentrated in the banking sector. However, this benefit may be counteracted by a rising presence of more vulnerable firms in the corporate bond market and by the structural vulnerabilities of non-bank financial intermediaries, which are significant investors in that market.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2022 from 9 February to 19 April 2022.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hit economic confidence and increased uncertainty in the euro area. This box illustrates how the increased uncertainty is being transmitted to the economy, adopting a two-step approach. In the first step, the uncertainty shock is identified using a structural vector autoregression model with sign and narrative restrictions. In the second step, the identified shock is used to compute losses in domestic demand, employing local projection methods. The box shows that the uncertainty shock witnessed in the period to April will have a material adverse impact on domestic demand, estimated to be larger for business investment than for consumption. Across sectors, the effect is estimated to be larger for manufacturing than for services and larger for durable goods than for non‑durables.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
22 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the extent to which current private sector forecasts point to expectations of stagflation in the euro area reminiscent of the stagflation episode in the 1970s. Stagflation refers to a protracted period of flat or negative growth combined with high or increasing inflation, as witnessed in the main advanced economies in the 1970s. Private forecasters do not currently envisage a period of stagflation for the euro area.
JEL Code
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
N14 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→Europe: 1913?
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
Record-high energy price increases at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 put significant pressures on the purchasing power of consumers. These increases followed a marked decline in energy prices at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While the initial increase in energy prices from the summer of 2020 was mainly driven by the recovery in energy demand following the easing of lockdown measures after the first wave of the pandemic, the subsequent price rally during 2021 was also significantly affected by supply-side issues. This development was aggravated in early 2022 by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The increase in European gas prices since the summer of 2021 has been particularly sharp, reflecting a combination of supply and demand factors that left European gas inventories at historically low levels ahead of the winter season and the gas market vulnerable to supply and demand uncertainty, including from escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, consumer gas prices and consumer electricity prices (driven by gas prices) played an increasingly important role in developments in HICP energy and were also accompanied by unprecedented cross-country heterogeneity in energy price developments.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
L90 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→General
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines recent developments in euro area food inflation and the channels through which it is being affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. Euro area HICP food inflation reached a historical high in April 2022. The rise has been driven primarily by increasing global energy and food commodity prices since the second half of 2021. The war and its repercussions are hindering the import of energy and food commodities in the euro area and contributing to further increases in global prices. While the European Union is mostly self-sufficient in terms of agricultural products, producing more than it consumes, this is exacerbating already existing pressures in euro area food markets.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box provides an overview of the impact that the war in Ukraine has had on euro area energy markets. Energy commodity and electricity prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been highly volatile ever since. Russia supplies a considerable amount of energy to the euro area, particularly gas. The European Union introduced economic sanctions targeting the Russian energy industry, most notably the coal and oil sectors, while steps are also being taken towards becoming independent of Russian gas. After the initial price spikes, energy commodity prices moderated, owing partly to the EU’s sanctions and also helped by other policy initiatives such as historically large releases of strategic oil reserves. Higher energy commodity prices intensified the pressure on euro area consumer prices in February and March 2022, while some of this pressure was alleviated in April and May as a result of government measures.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
N44 : Economic History→Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation→Europe: 1913?
20 June 2022
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner
20 June 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
20 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
The influx of Ukrainian refugees is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the size of the euro area labour force. Back-of-an-envelope median estimates suggest that the influx of Ukrainian refugees could boost the euro area labour force by between 0.2% and 0.8% in the medium term, depending on the duration and the severity of the war. This would result in the labour force gaining between 0.3 and 1.3 million additional workers. However, labour market rigidities and other labour market frictions may slow down the integration process, with the result that Ukrainian refugees are likely to enter the labour force very gradually.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J15 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants, Non-labor Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
16 June 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dein Spiegel on 19 May 2022
English
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16 June 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Maria Vasileiou
English
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15 June 2022
PRESS RELEASE
14 June 2022
SPEECH
Commencement speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the graduates of the Master Program in Money, Banking, Finance and Insurance of the Panthéon-Sorbonne University
Annexes
14 June 2022
SPEECH
9 June 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
9 June 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
7 July 2022
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
30 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nuño Rodrigo and Laura Salces on 25 May 2022
English
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25 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a policy lecture hosted by the SAFE Policy Center at Goethe University and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
English
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23 May 2022
THE ECB BLOG
As the expected date of interest rate lift-off draws closer, it gets more important to clarify the path of policy normalisation ahead of us – especially given the complex environment that monetary policy in the euro area is facing, says President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
11 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management
Annexes
11 May 2022
ANNEX
11 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the international conference to mark the 30th anniversary of Banka Slovenije
English
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7 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko and published on 7 May 2022
English
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5 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bruegel
5 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Marco Zatterin
English
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3 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe on 29 April 2022
English
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1 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Adolfo Lorente and Manu Álvarez on 26 April
English
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28 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
Minimum wages are prevalent in many euro area countries. Since 2008 minimum wages in the euro area have tended, on average, to grow at a similar pace to wages and salaries per employee. However, minimum wage growth can also significantly deviate from growth in wages and salaries in some years. Minimum wages are expected to grow at a substantially stronger pace than wages and salaries in many euro area countries in 2022 and 2023 – leading to a stronger than usual upward impact of minimum wages on euro area wage growth while the absolute direct mechanical impact on wage growth in the euro area is likely to remain contained.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
28 April 2022
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
27 April 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, International Association for Official Statistics (IAOS) Conference, Kraków
26 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
The price of emissions allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) has risen from below €10 per metric tonne of carbon to above €90 since the beginning of 2018. This box outlines the main reasons behind this increase and examines whether speculative activity may have played a significant role. It concludes that, at present, tangible evidence for a marked increase in speculative activity related to potential changes in market structure appears scarce. Furthermore, a speculation index suggests that, while speculation appears to have increased slightly since early 2019, it remains relatively moderate and well below readings during earlier phases of the ETS.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
21 April 2022
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fifth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
21 April 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Alessandra Migliaccio on 20 April 2022
14 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 67 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 30 March 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the first months of the year, despite ongoing supply constraints as well as cost and price pressures. The war in Ukraine added further disruption to businesses, mainly in the form of further price increases for energy and raw materials, much of which would be passed through to selling prices, as well as shortages resulting in reduced production in some sectors. Overall, contacts expected growth to slow in the coming months, as higher inflation would reduce disposable income and final consumer demand, while uncertainty and downside risks were substantial.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
14 April 2022
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
14 April 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
14 April 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
12 April 2022
PRESS RELEASE
8 April 2022
SPEECH
Opening speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IESE Business School Banking Initiative Conference on Technology and Finance
6 April 2022
SPEECH
Lectio Magistralis by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, on the occasion of the conferral of an honorary degree in Law by the University of Cassino and Southern Lazio
English
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2 April 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a workshop organised by the European House – Ambrosetti on “The Agenda for Europe: Macroeconomic and Structural Policy Challenges”
Annexes
2 April 2022
SPEECH
1 April 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach
31 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France – Paris School of Economics
English
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28 March 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 March 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 March 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, The Institute of International & European Affairs webinar
24 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the development of the saving ratios of non-financial corporations in the euro area and in the largest euro area countries during the coronavirus pandemic. It shows that euro area corporate saving ratios came under pressure at the start of the pandemic but have reached record highs in recent quarters. Business saving has outpaced investment, resulting in historically high net lending of non-financial corporations. Given the importance of savings as an internal source of finance for investment and the high levels of the saving-to-investment ratio and net lending position of non-financial corporations, the prospects for business investment currently look positive from an internal funding perspective.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
23 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
Notwithstanding the recent pick-up in corporate spreads in some markets, global corporate bond prices stand close to historical highs amid relatively low credit risk premia, particularly in lower-rated segments. At the same time, the COVID‑19 pandemic has increased the vulnerability and indebtedness of many firms around the world, with corporate credit ratings remaining below pre‑pandemic levels and some firms exhibiting relatively weak profitability. The model-based valuation analysis presented in this box suggests that the strong overall decline in global corporate bond spreads since the peak of the pandemic has been only partly driven by the market’s assessment of improving credit quality and could, to a large extent, be related to the strength of investors’ risk appetite. Based on analysis of bond-level valuations in the US corporate market, the box also shows that market-wide risk-off shocks have the potential to significantly increase corporate spreads and expected default probabilities, particularly for the weakest firms.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
22 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
In January 2022, Eurostat began publishing official euro area aggregates as part of its Owner-Occupied Housing Price Index (OOHPI). This box looks at the various sub-components of that index, offering a cross-country perspective and analysing their correlation with other price indicators at euro area level.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
20 March 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Frank Wiebe and Jan Mallien on 14 March
English
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17 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Monetary Policy and Climate Change” at The ECB and its Watchers XXII Conference
Annexes
17 March 2022
SPEECH
17 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “The ECB and Its Watchers XXII” conference
10 March 2022
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
10 March 2022
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 March 2022
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
10 March 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
10 March 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
2 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Hertie School, Berlin
28 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar organised by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies and Florence School of Banking and Finance at the European University Institute
English
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Annexes
28 February 2022
SPEECH
24 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual policy panel on “Unwinding QE” at the first annual Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference
Annexes
24 February 2022
SPEECH
23 February 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel on 21 February
English
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17 February 2022
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at MNI Market News Webcast
16 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
The ECB’s monetary policy strategy review confirmed that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remains the appropriate price measure for assessing the achievement of the medium-term price stability objective. However, the Governing Council recognised that the inclusion of costs related to owner-occupied housing in the HICP would better represent the inflation rate that is relevant for households. This article elaborates on the topic of owner-occupied housing and its proposed inclusion in the HICP. It showcases the two options considered by the Governing Council, focusing on their statistical and conceptual properties. For the net acquisition approach recommended by the Governing Council, the article presents analytical indices based on ECB approximations that serve as a blueprint for the quarterly internal measure to be monitored. Finally, the article looks ahead to the incorporation of the costs of owner-occupied housing into the HICP and the associated challenges, noting that the current HICP will remain the main reference index for monetary policy during the transition period.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
15 February 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 14 February and published on 15 February
15 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
The article takes stock of Next Generation EU (NGEU) from a euro area perspective. NGEU is a temporary crisis instrument that, if implemented successfully, is expected to significantly improve Europe’s economic prospects. In the short term, it should support the recovery of the EU economy. In the medium term, NGEU should help to modernise the EU economies, with positive effects on their growth potential, resilience and convergence. The article provides a synthesis of the fiscal measures and structural reforms embedded in the national recovery and resilience plans of euro area countries. It also looks at the economic impact of the planned investments. Finally, the article examines the novel governance approach that can sustain a successful implementation of NGEU.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
14 February 2022
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
14 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box investigates potential long-term effects that current supply shortages could have on euro area potential output growth. Depending on the persistence of supply bottlenecks, firms might consider finding new supply chains. If this happens, sectors that have greatly benefited from international exposure and globalisation in terms of productivity growth might experience a decline in trend total factor productivity. All else being equal, this could lead to a trend decline in potential output growth for the most affected countries. The likelihood of such a scenario is highly difficult to assess. On the one hand, the high sunk costs of establishing global supply chains imply that reshoring would not take place at a larger scale if the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is perceived to be temporary. On the other hand, a substantial shift in the geography of supply chains may occur because supply disruptions are very costly to firms. The challenges presented by this reorganisation process could be exacerbated if the pandemic encourages an increase in protectionism and de-globalisation. This box presents two scenarios, using historical elasticities between global value chain participation and trend total factor productivity growth, to give a flavour of the possible impact the current supply shortages could have on potential output.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
14 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
After headline inflation had already reached very high levels in the United States in the first half of 2021 and increased further to 7% in December, euro area inflation also recorded a very rapid increase in the second half of 2021 but remained much lower than in the United States at 5% in December and – according to Eurostat’s flash release – at 5.1% in January. Most of the difference in overall inflation developments has been due to the far stronger increase in inflation less energy and food (and from a higher starting point) in the United States than in the euro area. Large contributions from some special items – including used car prices – continue to play a key role for explaining differences in inflation excluding food and energy. Turning to underlying drivers of inflation developments, the United States is more advanced in the business cycle than the euro area and the US labour market has tightened, which has started to be reflected in some upward pressure on wages. However it should be kept in mind that the pandemic is a unique situation with considerable differences in inflation developments when compared with “normal” times, which require close monitoring and add to the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook in the United States as well as in the euro area. Upside surprises in inflation data releases have continued to be larger for the United States than for the euro area over recent quarters. Looking ahead, Consensus Economics forecasts expected inflation to remain below 2% in 2023 in the euro area but not in the United States and uncertainty around the outlook for inflation seemed to be much greater for the United States.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
10 February 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Looking at inflation dynamics, the relative price dislocations associated with bottlenecks are intrinsically short-term, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane writes in The ECB Blog. An increase in the relative price for a scarce item will stimulate new supply, while cooling demand.
10 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the London School of Economics German Symposium
9 February 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 9 February 2022
7 February 2022
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
3 February 2022
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
3 February 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
3 February 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
25 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Emilis Linge and Dalius Simenas
English
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14 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra, Bastian Brinkmann and Meike Schreiber on 10 January 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
14 January 2022
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the meeting of the Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs of the Parliaments of the European Union (COSAC)
English
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13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2021 from 28 July 2021 to 2 November 2021.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box presents a model-based approach for distinguishing between two unobserved components embedded in market-based measures of inflation compensation, namely inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. The approach relies on econometric models used to analyse the term structure of inflation-linked swap rates. Estimates indicate that the rise in inflation compensation observed since mid-2020 is attributable more to inflation risk premia than to inflation expectations. This suggests that the rise is mainly related to a shift in the inflation risks priced in, from lower than expected to higher than expected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box explores new indicators of the financing conditions faced by euro area companies, based on firm-level survey data. Drawing on the rich dataset provided by the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), three synthetic indicators summarise how firms have perceived their financing conditions in the euro area since 2009. Overall, the indicators suggest there have been several important phases in firms’ perceptions of financing conditions, which relate closely to ECB monetary policy measures. The empirical analysis shows that, after the onset of the pandemic, firms’ perceptions of financing conditions played an increasingly important role in explaining their expectations of the future availability of bank loans.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
During the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply and demand imbalances have put a strain on global production networks. We develop a two-step vector autoregression (VAR) procedure to gauge the impact of supply chain shocks on activity, trade and prices. In the first step, we use a sign restricted structural VAR with PMI output and PMI delivery times to recover the supply chain shock, which is our proxy for measuring episodes of supply chain strains. In the second step, we plug such shocks as exogenous variables into a companion VAR with endogenous real and nominal variables. Counterfactual scenarios are constructed to assess the effects of the supply bottlenecks, which are having a negative impact on real variables and pushing up prices. A medium-term assessment of the supply chain strains is also provided.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
Understanding the expectations of households, firms and financial markets regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments is important for the conduct of monetary policy. Surveys can play an important role in understanding expectations. The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) brings together information on financial sector expectations of monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in one coherently structured and regularly updated survey. The objective of the SMA is to “gather regular, comprehensive, structured and systematic information on market participants’ expectations”. The ECB launched the SMA as a pilot project in April 2019 and, after concluding the pilot phase, has published aggregate results since June 2021. This article looks at the structure of the survey and the rationale behind it and explains what role it plays in understanding changes in market participants’ expectations of euro area monetary policy and the macroeconomy.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi
8 January 2022
SPEECH
Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Climate and the Financial System” at the American Finance Association 2022 Virtual Annual Meeting
Annexes
8 January 2022
SPEECH
7 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Robert Shortt on 7 January and published on 7 January 2022
22 December 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 16 December and published on 22 December
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
16 December 2021
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
16 December 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
Related
16 December 2021
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
8 December 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the fifth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board
Annexes
8 December 2021
SPEECH
8 December 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 5th ESRB Annual Conference
30 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Édouard Lederer and Thibaut Madelin on 24 November and published on 30 November
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
26 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
24 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Sciences Po
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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Annexes
24 November 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
23 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 22 and published on 23 November 2021
19 November 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 31st Frankfurt European Banking Congress 2021 “From Recovery to Strength”
17 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual event organised by Goldman Sachs
Annexes
17 November 2021
SPEECH
15 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the 24th Euro Finance Week
15 November 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
Annexes
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
In the wake of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, a special survey was conducted among the panel of participants in the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The aim of the survey was to gain an insight into how the participants in the regular SPF survey have assessed the new strategy and into whether it has already had, or will have, an impact on their forecasts. Overall, respondents considered the new strategy to be an improvement, identifying the clearer inflation target (2%) and explicit commitment to symmetry as key elements. Regarding the impact on macroeconomic forecasts, around one-third of respondents indicated that they had revised their point longer-term inflation expectations, and a slightly larger portion indicated that they had revised (up) the balance of risks surrounding those expectations in response to the new strategy. The results of the survey suggest there is a strong correlation between what respondents viewed as key aspects in the new strategy and what they viewed as key improvements compared with the previous strategy.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
Shocks to inflation can have longer-lasting effects in the presence of second-round effects. Wage-setting systems are more likely to trigger second-round effects if wage indexation is widespread in labour agreements. To derive a euro area indicator for the prevalence of wage indexation, characteristics of national wage indexation schemes are weighted by country shares in euro area private sector employment. Based on this indicator, around 3% of private sector employees in the euro area have wages and minimum wages automatically indexed to inflation. For most of the employees covered by automatic wage indexation, the inflation measure is backward-looking and includes energy. Indexation regimes where inflation has a formal, but not automatic role in wage negotiations, apply to currently around 18% of employees in the euro area and mostly consider forward-looking inflation measures excluding energy. Additionally, around 18% of euro area employees work in countries where only the minimum wages are automatically indexed to inflation. These indexation mechanisms are usually backward-looking with inflation measures that include energy. For more than half of the employees in the euro area, inflation does not play a formal role in wage setting but can be an important factor in wage negotiations. Where there is no formal role for inflation, inflation developments can be more easily disregarded in times of high uncertainty, with the focus being on job security instead, for example. Since the Great Financial Crisis, indexation regimes with a formal role for inflation in wage setting have become somewhat less prevalent in the euro area. Overall, the likelihood of euro area wage-setting schemes triggering second-round effects based on inflation indexation is relatively limited, particularly with regard to energy inflation. Recent hikes in energy inflation can be expected to lead to some automatic wage increases, mainly in minimum wages in some countries, affecting only a small share of private sector employees. However, a broadly based and automatic pass-through to wage growth through wage indexation mechanisms seems rather unlikely.
JEL Code
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews three popular equilibrium exchange rate models, the purchasing power parity (PPP), behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and macroeconomic balance (MB) models. The aim is to address two questions: whether such models help in forecasting real and nominal exchange rates and which macroeconomic fundamentals contain such predictive power. The evidence suggests that real exchange rates adjust over time to their estimated real exchange rate equilibria only in the cases of the PPP and BEER models. Exploring this empirical regularity, it is possible to draw three important lessons. The first is that such equilibrium adjustment helps to forecast real exchange rates. The second lesson is that this real equilibrium adjustment process helps in forecasting nominal exchange rates, as most of the adjustment toward equilibrium is achieved by currency movements and not by relative price changes. The third is that most of the forecasting power comes from the exploitation of the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates rather than an understanding of the relationship between exchange rates and economic fundamentals.
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
10 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
The growth of euro area labour productivity, measured by real GDP per hour worked, increased at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic before declining during the subsequent economic recovery. This contradicts the general notion of productivity being procyclical and reflects the unique nature of this crisis. This box discusses the recent patterns in labour productivity and considers the extent to which some of these developments might fade or consolidate after the crisis.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
10 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
Productivity plays a key role in the economic resilience and social welfare of countries. Central bankers are also interested in higher productivity growth because it would contribute to increasing the natural rate of interest and, therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy, its room for manoeuvre and its transmission to the economy. With this monetary policy perspective in mind, this article aims to show key productivity trends and drivers over the past few decades in the euro area. The article is complemented by Box 4 in this issue of the Economic Bulletin, which presents preliminary evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and of policy responses to it, on productivity in the euro area.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
9 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual conference on “Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking”
Annexes
9 November 2021
SPEECH
9 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box looks at recent trends in, and the outlook for, euro area housing markets using data from the ECB’s new Consumer Expectations Survey. Households from the highest income quintile, those expecting high income growth and households that are net savers are particularly likely to support housing demand going forward. While some accumulated savings may have already been used for house purchase, such savings are still expected to support housing demand in the near term. Households expect favourable credit conditions and increasing housing prices, which suggests a dynamic housing market but may also pose housing affordability problems for lower-income households.
JEL Code
R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
9 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews the developments in the euro area housing market during the various phases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and compares them with previous crises. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory and voluntary restrictions on economic agents’ mobility had a strong impact on housing market activity. However, in contrast to the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the upward trend in house prices and housing loans continued unabated, which was also thanks to resilient demand for housing by households. During the second and third waves, the forceful support of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy measures amid more targeted containment measures ensured favourable financing conditions and helped increase the attractiveness of housing for investment purposes, while supply-side bottlenecks may have exerted some upward pressure on house prices. The outlook for the euro area housing market remains dependent on uncertainties related to pandemic developments, policy support and structural changes.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
9 November 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the high-level panel on central bank digital currency, 30th Anniversary Conference of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
8 November 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets
8 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the recent dynamics and outlook for economic activity in more contact-intensive services in the euro area, which were particularly adversely affected by the pandemic. Following the marked deterioration during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, value added in those services rebounded strongly in the second and third quarters of 2021, while remaining well below its pre-pandemic level. The ample slack in these subsectors is also confirmed by the significant role of demand as a factor limiting activity, which in turn appears to be affected by pandemic restrictions. The gradual resolution of the public health crisis and the ensuing reopening of the economy are expected to support a continued recovery in more contact-intensive services. In the medium term, structural factors, such as changes in households’ preferences and working arrangements, will also play a role in shaping the recovery path of consumer services.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
8 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lluís Pellícer on 3 November 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
3 November 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Chair of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the COP26 Finance Day Presidency Event on “A Financial System for Net Zero”
29 October 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 68 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 4 and 13 October 2021. According to these contacts, overall activity was strong or growing across a range of sectors. However, supply constraints were increasingly limiting firms’ ability to meet demand and were generating pipeline price pressures which, while transitory in nature, were turning out to be more persistent than some had anticipated. There were also more widespread reports of labour shortages, not least as the recovery of high-contact services had stimulated recruitment activity. Owing to the pipeline prices pressures and the recent surge in energy prices, contacts anticipated greater pass-through to consumer prices and higher wages in 2022 than they had a few months ago.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
28 October 2021
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
28 October 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
26 October 2021
PRESS RELEASE
Related
14 October 2021
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fourth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
11 October 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice
7 October 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland webinar "The importance of data"
7 October 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2021”
Annexes
7 October 2021
SPEECH
1 October 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference on “Implications of Federal Reserve Actions in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic”
Annexes
1 October 2021
SPEECH
28 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at ECB Forum on Central Banking "Beyond the pandemic: the future of monetary policy"
27 September 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
Annexes
27 September 2021
ANNEX
24 September 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the 5th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements Research Seminar organised by the European Stability Mechanism
24 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 23 September
23 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the 8th Conference on the Banking Union, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main
23 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
In its climate change action plan, the ECB committed to accelerating the development of new models and conducting theoretical and empirical analyses to monitor the implications of climate change and related policies for the economy. As a first step in its detailed roadmap of climate-related actions, the ECB envisages the inclusion of technical assumptions on carbon pricing in Eurosystem/ECB staff projections. Against this backdrop, this box summarises the genesis and basic features of the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the system setting the carbon price in the EU. The EU ETS, which began operating in 2005, is a “cap and trade” system where a cap is set by the EU on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by the activities covered by the system. It has been implemented in “phases” designed to gradually reduce the cap while increasing the scope of the system. In July 2021 a revision of the EU ETS was proposed in the context of the “Fit for 55” package. Meanwhile, the price of emissions allowances traded on the EU ETS has increased from €8 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent at the beginning of 2018 to around €60 more recently. So far, the main impact of changes in emissions allowance prices has been on HICP energy inflation, and, overall, the risk that emissions allowance prices under the current EU ETS may translate into significantly higher headline inflation in the near term appears limited. However, against the backdrop of the ECB’s recently announced action plan, these and other climate change mitigation polices will be further explored with regard to their implications for macroeconomic modelling and monetary policy.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
22 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the health of the euro area non-financial corporate sector at an aggregate level during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using the quarterly sectoral accounts. The results suggest that non-financial corporate liquidity was safeguarded at the aggregated sector level. This was mainly due to a build-up of cash buffers, as is typical for crisis periods, and the timely and extensive reactions from the monetary, fiscal and supervisory authorities. Policy interventions provided direct and indirect support to non-financial corporations and enabled firms to substantially increase their recourse to debt financing. However, non-financial corporate profitability, operating efficiency, indebtedness and vulnerabilities came under pressure, increasing the risk of a rise in firm defaults in the future.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
21 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations and liquidity developments during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2021 (28 April 2021 to 27 July 2021).
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
Before the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, HICP inflation was relatively subdued in the euro area, standing at 1.2% in February 2020. In the United States, CPI inflation was substantially stronger, at 2.3% in the same month. After having declined over 2020, headline inflation has increased strongly in the United States and the euro area over recent months. Most of the increase, especially in the United States, has been driven by only a few items in the consumption baskets – including energy prices. Looking at developments in underlying inflation, US CPI inflation less food and energy has increased strongly, significantly surpassing its pre-pandemic levels, while HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) in the euro area has remained below its pre-pandemic levels – reflecting in part a still larger amount of slack in the euro area economy. Recent increases in inflation have pushed up the short-term inflation expectations of professional forecasters for the United States and, to a much lesser extent, also for the euro area, but inflation rates are expected to decrease substantially again over the first half of 2022. A substantial part of the strong increases in inflation over recent months in the United States and the euro area can be attributed to special factors that are likely to be of a temporary nature. For a more permanent increase in inflation, price pressures would usually need to become more broad-based (especially in the euro area) and also reflect increasing labour cost pressures. However, there is so far no firm indication of the latter once the effects of changes in the composition of employment and of job retention schemes are taken into account.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Conference of Latvijas Banka on "Sustainable Economy in Times of Change"
Annexes
20 September 2021
SPEECH
20 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
The third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) enabled one of the largest liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB). This article provides an assessment of the effectiveness of the operations in supporting bank lending conditions. It discusses the main transmission channels of TLTRO III, including in relation to other policy measures. This article also includes a box on the importance of collateral easing measures, a box on the impact of TLTRO III on money market rates, and a box on the consequences of high participation in TLTRO III for excess liquidity levels. The article then documents, based on hard data on banks’ balance sheets and soft information from bank surveys, the extent to which TLTRO III has eased bank lending conditions, thereby helping to support access to credit for households and firms during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
20 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article analyses the evolution of hours worked per worker in the euro area, in the light of their relevance for the labour contribution to the production of goods and services and for the capacity of the labour market to adjust to macroeconomic developments. Annual hours worked per worker in the euro area have been on a downward trend. Between 1995 and 2019, they declined by more than a hundred hours per worker, from 1,681 to 1,476. Most of this decline results from a rising share of part-time work which in turn can mainly be explained by the increasing labour force participation of women. Labour supply factors have a clear impact as most people working part-time do so voluntarily. Hours worked per worker also play an important role in the adjustment of the labour market during cyclical downturns, as some firms choose to reduce hours per worker to protect employment. This feature is an important factor in assessing the strength of the labour market during subsequent recoveries.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
16 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by David Rubenstein, Bloomberg, on 13 September
15 September 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IMFS Policy Webinar
15 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group meeting
Annexes
15 September 2021
ANNEX
14 September 2021
THE ECB BLOG
While rising inflation understandably worries people, current inflation rates should be interpreted with caution, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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13 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 148th Baden-Baden Entrepreneurs’ Talk
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
Annexes
13 September 2021
SPEECH
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
9 September 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
1 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, on 30 August 2021
1 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Miquel Roig and Jorge Zuloaga on 26 August and published on 1 September 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
31 August 2021
THE ECB BLOG
The existential threat posed by climate change implies that central banks must not stand on the sidelines in the fight against global warming, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Our ambitious climate action plan outlines how the ECB will contribute within its mandate.
25 August 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt
24 August 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA)
Annexes
24 August 2021
SPEECH
21 August 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carla Neuhaus on 17 August and published on 20 August 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
19 August 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Our revised forward guidance is a fundamental step in fulfilling our commitment to 2% inflation, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. He also discusses the three conditions that should be met before interest rates are raised.
4 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews how policy institutions – international organisations and central banks – use big data and machine learning methods to analyse the business cycle. It provides different examples to show how big data and machine learning methods are particularly suitable for capturing large shocks and non-linearities in real time. The coronavirus crisis is a case in point, where big data have provided invaluable timely signals on the state of the economy, thus helping to track and assess economic activity, domestic demand and labour market developments in real time. Finally, the article discusses the main challenges faced by central banks when using non-standard data and methods and areas of further application to the work of central banks.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
29 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Frank Wiebe and Jan Mallien
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
29 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Federico Fubini
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
27 July 2021
THE ECB BLOG
If we make the recovery fund work and if we embed the lessons from the pandemic in the EMU governance framework, we can emerge from the crisis with a stronger economy and greater social and political cohesion, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta in The ECB Blog.
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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23 July 2021
PRESS RELEASE
22 July 2021
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
22 July 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
20 July 2021
PRESS RELEASE
14 July 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the virtual Financial Statements series hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics
Annexes
14 July 2021
SPEECH
13 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 11 July 2021
10 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patrick Bernau and Dennis Kremer on 8 July and published on 10 July 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
2 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Cécile Berenger
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
28 June 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference of the Governors of Mediterranean Central Banks on “Central banks at the frontline of the COVID-19 crisis: weathering the storm, spurring the recovery”
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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24 June 2021
SPEECH
Guest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the School of Economics and Management, University of Cyprus
21 June 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
Annexes
20 June 2021
PRESS RELEASE
17 June 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Paul Gordon on 17 June 2021
14 June 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB DG-Research Symposium “Climate change, financial markets and green growth”
14 June 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck and Florian Eder on 11 June 2021 in Frankfurt
10 June 2021
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
10 June 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
3 June 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Frank Elderson, Chair of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System, Member of the Executive Board and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at The Green Swan Conference – Coordinating finance on climate
2 June 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the awarding of the Prix Turgot 2021, Paris
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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28 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi, Frank Siebelt and Francesco Canepa
27 May 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “VIII. New Paradigm Workshop”, organised by the Forum New Economy
Annexes
27 May 2021
SPEECH
26 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jun Ishikawa
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
Select your language
19 May 2021
PRESS RELEASE
Related
19 May 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
11 May 2021
PRESS RELEASE
10 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert and Marie Charrel
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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5 May 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the OMFIF virtual panel
3 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni on 27 April 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
29 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gabriel Mellqvist on 29 April 2021
29 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
Related
29 April 2021
EURO MONEY MARKET
28 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 28 April 2021
26 April 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF conference on “Spillovers in a “post-pandemic, low-for-long” world”
23 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
22 April 2021
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
22 April 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
20 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
14 April 2021
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
12 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Sara Eisen on 9 April 2021 and broadcast on the same day
11 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel and published on 11 April 2021
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9 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 1 April and published on 9 April 2021, in print on 10 April 2021
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8 April 2021
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
27 March 2021
SPEECH
Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at “The Outlook for the Economy and Finance” workshop (fully digital) organised by The European House − Ambrosetti
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25 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at NYU Stern Fireside Chat
Annexes
25 March 2021
SPEECH
23 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach on 22 March 2021
22 March 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Our pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) has provided crucial support to euro area citizens since its launch a year ago, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. The PEPP has been, and remains, at the core of our pandemic policy response.
18 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the High-level conference on “Strengthening the EU’s bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework: for a more resilient and efficient banking union” organised by the European Commission
18 March 2021
PRESS RELEASE
18 March 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
Annexes
17 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 16 March 2021
17 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa, Lucie Robequain and Sophie Rolland
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16 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold
11 March 2021
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
11 March 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
3 March 2021
SPEECH
Intervention by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “Greening Monetary Policy – Central Banking and Climate Change” online seminar, organised as part of the “Cleveland Fed Conversations on Central Banking”, 3 March 2021
Annexes
3 March 2021
SPEECH
2 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online event organised by Bocconi University
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2 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), conducted by Sérgio Aníbal
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1 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “Jahresimpuls Mittelstand 2021” of Bundesverband Mittelständische Wirtschaft
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1 March 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Banque de France / Sciences Po Financial Stability Review Conference 2021 “Is macroprudential policy resilient to the pandemic?”
26 February 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Third Annual Conference organised by the European Fiscal Board on “High Debt, Low Rates and Tail Events: Rules-Based Fiscal Frameworks under Stress”
Annexes
26 February 2021
SPEECH
26 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 22 February
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25 February 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the IESE Business School Alumni Learning Programme Webinar “Risk, reform and recovery in the eurozone”
25 February 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
25 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Ingūna Ukenābele on 22 February 2021
English
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22 February 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening plenary session of the European Parliamentary Week 2021 in virtual format
18 February 2021
SPEECH
Guest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
13 February 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Climate change requires urgent action and we at the ECB must be committed to doing our part, says Executive Board member Frank Elderson. The EU Treaties define clear obligations and limits. They provide substantial scope for the ECB to take action on climate change.
8 February 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
8 February 2021
PRESS RELEASE
7 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl and Hervé Gattegno
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4 February 2021
PRESS RELEASE
31 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra on 26 January and published on 1 February 2021 as a shortened version in Süddeutsche Zeitung
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31 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Klemens Kindermann on 29 January 2021 and published on 31 January 2021
28 January 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the LSE conference on “Financial Cycles, Risk, Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences”
Annexes
28 January 2021
SPEECH
25 January 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Lámfalussy Lectures E-Conference 2021 organised by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
25 January 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 50th anniversary of the Associazione Italiana per l’Analisi Finanziaria (by videoconference)
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21 January 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
19 January 2021
PRESS RELEASE
Related
12 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andras Szigètvari on 7 January 2021 und published on 12 January 2021
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18 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 17 December 2020
16 December 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, as part of the seminar series “Havarie Europa. Zur Pathogenese europäischer Gegenwarten” at the Hamburg Institute for Social Research (Hamburger Institut für Sozialforschung)
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Annexes
16 December 2020
SPEECH
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14 December 2020
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the third roundtable on euro risk-free rates
14 December 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Rome Investment Forum 2020
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10 December 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 December 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 December 2020
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
10 December 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
2 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi on 1 December 2020
1 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow, Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 30 November 2020
28 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari on 24 November 2020
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27 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 19 November 2020
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26 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Economics Department and IM-TCD, Trinity College Dublin
25 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 23 November 2020
24 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The Bank of Finland Monetary Policy webinar: New Challenges to Monetary Policy Strategies
Annexes
24 November 2020
SPEECH
23 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets, 23 November 2020
Annexes
23 November 2020
SPEECH
23 November 2020
PRESS RELEASE
22 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa and Sophie Rolland
English
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19 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Financial Stability Conference on “Stress, Contagion, and Transmission” organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research
Annexes
19 November 2020
SPEECH
19 November 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
Annexes
19 November 2020
SPEECH
17 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 12 November and aired on 13 November
17 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Maria Nobre, broadcast on Tuesday, 17 November at 12:00 a.m. CET
16 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 23rd EURO FINANCE WEEK
11 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking
4 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the second EBI Policy Conference on “Europe and the Covid-19 Crisis – Looking back and looking forward”
Annexes
4 November 2020
SPEECH
4 November 2020
SPEECH
Transcript of Q&A session following a fireside chat with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at an online UBS event on the European economic and policy outlook, conducted on 30 October 2020
3 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
English
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2 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ESCB Legal Conference
29 October 2020
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
29 October 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
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